Status by feature
Status as of October 2026.
| Event markets in SparklingBased on the Polymarket region list | Selected regions |
|---|---|
| United StatesInternational markets not open to US users | Closed |
| Several other countriesBlocked or closing trades only | Limited |
Prediction markets
Prediction markets in Sparkling, trade what you think will happen
Will the Fed cut rates? Will bitcoin close the hour higher? Prediction markets turn questions like these into shares you can buy and sell, and the price tells you what the crowd expects. In Sparkling they sit next to your swaps and perps, funded from the same account.
How do prediction markets work?
Every market is a question with defined outcomes and a resolution source. Traders buy shares of the outcome they believe in from other traders; the price moves with supply and demand until the event resolves, when winning shares pay 1 dollar each.
| You buy | Price | If you’re right | If you’re wrong |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Yes shares | 0.40 each, 4 USDC | Receive 10 USDC | Receive nothing |
| 10 No shares | 0.60 each, 6 USDC | Receive 10 USDC | Receive nothing |
Before the result you can sell at the current price, locking in a gain or cutting a loss.
Are prediction markets gambling?
Legally it depends on the country: some regulators treat event contracts as financial derivatives, others as betting, and some ban them. Practically, unlike with a bookmaker, your counterparty is another trader, the price floats and an early exit is possible, but the outcome is still binary and you can lose the full stake.
Prediction markets and binary options
Short crypto questions can also be traded as binary options. In Sparkling, Lighter offers BTC and ETH Up/Down options over 15-minute windows, settled with Chainlink prices, while Polymarket covers events of every kind, from economics to elections.
| Polymarket markets | Lighter Up/Down options | |
|---|---|---|
| Topics | News, economics, politics, sports, crypto | BTC and ETH price direction |
| Settlement source | Market resolution rules | Chainlink price data |
| Balance used | Separate Predictions balance | USDC in your account |
Trading event contracts in Sparkling
Sparkling connects to Polymarket, the largest prediction market. You fund a separate Predictions balance in USDC from your account, then ask the agent, for example “show markets on the next Fed decision” or “10 dollars on bitcoin up in the next hour”. The card shows the share price, the payout and the fees. Details of the Polymarket integration are on our Polymarket page.
How are prediction markets taxed?
There is no single rule. Tax offices classify these profits differently: as capital gains in some countries, as gambling winnings or other income elsewhere, and funding with crypto can add a separate disposal. Keep a record of every purchase, sale and payout, and check local guidance or an accountant.
Where prediction markets are available
Availability varies by jurisdiction. Prediction markets follow Polymarket's regional rules and local law.
Risks of prediction markets
Shares on the losing side expire worthless, thin markets can be hard to exit, and resolution can be disputed. Treat event trading as high risk and keep stakes small. Sparkling crypto is for adults aged 18 and over; nothing here is investment advice.
Prediction market questions
What are prediction markets?
Markets where people trade shares on future events; prices reflect expected probability.
Are prediction markets legal?
It depends on the country; some allow them as derivatives, others restrict or ban them.
Can I sell before the event ends?
Yes, at the current market price.
What kinds of events can I trade?
Economics, crypto prices, politics, sports, culture and more, depending on your region.
What are crypto up or down markets?
Short markets on whether BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP or DOGE will be higher after a set window.
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